Macro disturbances intertwined with the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, SHFE tin seeks direction amidst volatility [SMM tin futures brief comment]

On August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. It opened at 268,000 yuan/mt, with the intraday low reaching 266,550 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it was boosted by the recovery of macro sentiment, ultimately closing at 267,940 yuan/mt, up 1,080 yuan (0.4%) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 11.802 billion yuan. During the same period, the LME tin contract closed up 1.04% at $33,575/mt, reflecting the ongoing battle between overseas low inventory support and macro disruptions.

​​Semiconductor Tariff Impact​​: Trump announced a 100% tariff on imported chips and semiconductors (exempt for those produced in the US). Although this stimulated local investments by companies like Apple, it directly pressured global electronics industry chain tin consumption expectations. Tin, as a key material in solder, derives approximately 55% of its demand from the electronics industry, and the tariff policy has intensified wait-and-see sentiment downstream.

​​Geopolitical Tariff Escalation​​: The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on India (bringing the total tariff rate to 50%), worsening US-India trade relations. Coupled with the potential tariff threats against countries importing Russian oil, global supply chain risk aversion has risen, suppressing risk appetite.

​​Inventory Divergence Highlighted​​: LME tin inventory fell to 1,755 mt (a low for the year), with the discount for the 0-3 month period expanding to $73, reflecting tight overseas visible inventory.

​​The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated within the range of 265,000-275,000 yuan/mt, while LME tin was referenced within the $32,000-$34,000 range. If Myanmar's supply recovery exceeds expectations or semiconductor tariffs inhibit end-user orders, prices may test the 260,000 yuan support level. Conversely, if interest rate cuts materialize and peak-season restocking occurs earlier, prices may rise to test the 275,000 yuan resistance level. It is recommended that investors monitor Myanmar's tin ore customs clearance volume, US non-farm payrolls data, and the Federal Reserve's personnel nomination trends. Short-term operations should focus on range-bound trading, and new positions should be opened cautiously.